Economic Analysis

We await many important economic data this week, highlighting the following:

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Monday: 11:15 for Spain, 11:45 for Italy, French final at 11:50, final German at 11:55, and Eurozone final at 12:00. Final PMI readings are expected to confirm preliminary releases from late February, and all estimates are below 50, indicating deflation. Spain's manufacturing sector has been in a contraction mode since May, and this trend is expected to continue in February, at 48.9 points. In Italy, the manufacturing sector has been in decline for more than a year and expectations for the next release are 48.0 points. The German index is expected to reach 47.8 and the Eurozone PMI is expected to improve to 49.1 points. The French PMI is expected to slow to 49.7, down from 51.1 the previous month.

British Manufacturing PMI Final: Monday, 12:30. The preliminary estimate for this indicator came in at 51.9, outperforming the estimate of 49.7 points. The second estimate is expected to confirm this figure.

US Manufacturing PMI: Monday, 18:00. The PMI managed to rise above the 50 level in January, after recording five consecutive readings indicating the contraction. The estimate for February stands at 50.5 points.

The RBA's interest rate decision: Tuesday, 3:30. With the impact of the Chinese Corona Virus on the Australian economy, there is some pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates. The bank has kept the interest rate at 0.75% since October and analysts do not expect a cut at the next meeting. The statement may send the AUD / USD to a lower level.

British Construction PMI: Tuesday, 12:30. The PMI is still mired in the contraction zone and came in at 44.4 in December. The index is expected to improve to 48.4 in January.

Eurozone inflation: Tuesday, 13:00. The preliminary estimate of the Eurozone CPI rose by 1.4% in February, matching the estimate. There is no change in the final estimate.

Australian GDP: Wednesday, 0:30. The economy rose 0.4% in the third quarter, little changed from a 0.5% gain in the second quarter. Another 0.4% increase is expected in the fourth quarter.

Eurozone Services PMI: Wednesday, 11:15 for Spain, 11:45 for Italy, French final at 11:50, final German at 11:55, and Eurozone final at 12:00. The services sector figures were generally better than the manufacturing sector. Spain scored 52.5 in January. Italy was 51.4. The initial reading for France was 52.6, Germany 53.3 and the euro area 52.8. There are no changes expected in the final versions.

British PMI for final services: Wednesday, 12:30. The preliminary estimate of services in the PMI came in at 53.3, with the second estimate slightly revised to 53.2 points.

Non-Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 18:00. The services sector continues to outpace manufacturing, and the Services PMI rose to 55.0 in January, the highest level in five months. The estimate for February stands at 55.1 points.

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Wednesday, 18:00. The Bank of Canada has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 1.75% since October 2018 and does not expect any change at the next meeting. The tone of the price statement may affect the movement of prices.

OPEC + meetings: Thursday, all day. Oil ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC countries will meet to attend a crucial meeting in Vienna. OPEC has proposed cutting production to stabilize falling oil prices, but it needs Russia on board if the cuts have any effect.

US Employment Reports: Friday, 16:30. Non-farm payrolls and wage growth are market drivers that can have a major impact on currency movement. The non-farm payroll index is expected to drop from 225 thousand to 185 thousand, while wage growth is expected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%.

Canadian Employment Reports: Friday, 16:30. The job market looked strong, as the economy created more than 34,000 jobs in each of the previous two readings. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in January, down from 5.7%. Upcoming employment data could have a major impact on the USD / CAD movement.

All times are ksa*