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The most important economic events expected this week 20 to 24 April 2020
The Corona virus outbreak continues to cause chaos in the global economy, as closures around the world have paralyzed major economies. We'll look at UK inflation and employment reports as well as the US Manufacturing PMI.
The Chinese economy shrank by 6.8% in the first quarter, compared to gains of 6.0% in the fourth quarter. This was worse than the -6.2 percent estimate. Inflation remains low in the Eurozone, with the Consumer Price Index coming in at 0.7%, while the Core Reading showed a 1.0% increase. This confirms the initial readings.
In the US, consumer spending fell in March. Retail sales fell by an amazing 8.7%, worse than the 8.0% decline estimates. The basic reading decreased by 4.5%, exceeding expectations by 4.9%. The job market is still in disarray, with unemployment claims exceeding the 5 million mark.
RBA Monetary Policy Minutes: Tuesday, 4:30. The RBA minutes will provide details of the March policy meeting. At that meeting, the bank kept the interest rate at 0.25%. If the assessment is pessimistic by policy makers on the record, it could affect the Australian dollar.
UK Employment Reports: Tuesday, 9:00. The outlook for the UK labor market is bleak, as the outbreak of the Corona virus paralyzed the British economy. Wage growth improved to 3.1% in January, up from 2.9% the previous month. The estimate for February stands at 3.0%. Unemployment claims jumped to 17.3 thousand in February, up from 5.5 thousand and well above the estimates of 6.2 thousand. January's unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, the highest level since June. There is no expected change in the unemployment rate.
UK Inflation: Wednesday, 9:00. With economic activity falling sharply, inflation levels are expected to decrease. The CPI fell to 1.7% in February, down from 1.8%. The estimate for March stands at 1.5%. Core CPI rose to 1.7%, up from 1.6%, and March expectations for 1.6%.
Canadian Inflation: Wednesday, 15:30. Consumer price inflation rose 0.4% in February, up from 0.3%, the highest level since July. The base figure improved to 0.7%, up from 0.4% a month ago. Will the rally continue in the next release?
American Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 12:30. Unemployment benefits were over 5 million last week, and analysts are preparing for many more as the outbreak of the Corona virus has closed millions of employees.
US Manufacturing PMI: Wednesday, 15:30. The manufacturing PMI slowed in March to 49.1, dropping below the 50 level that separates deflation from expansion. We are now awaiting the initial reading for April.
