Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

ADP Nonfarm Payrolls Change (March) - Wed (02:15 PM)

The private jobs sector added to the US economy unexpectedly, 242 thousand jobs in February. It is a higher number than the revised number in January of the same year at 119 thousand jobs and also higher than market expectations at 200 thousand jobs. The next release is expected to be around 200 thousand.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (March) – Wednesday (04:00PM)

The figures for last February showed a slight decrease compared to January 2023, when the index recorded 55.2 (January) compared to 55.1 (February). This number remains above expectations of 54.2. Readings above 50 indicate expansion which is good for the country's currency.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (04:30 PM)

At the end of the week ending March 24, 2023, US crude oil inventories fell by 7.489 million barrels, the largest decline since November 2022, contrary to market expectations for an increase of 0.092 million barrels. The next release is expected to be -1.8 million barrels (how much decrease is expected).

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (02:30 PM)

The US complaints rate increased by 7K from last week around 198K in the week ending March 25, 2023 which is slightly higher than the market expectation around 196K. The next release is expected to be around 205K.

Private Employment Report (March) - Friday (02:30 PM)

The labor sector in America always surprises us with amazing numbers, as 311,000 jobs were added to the US economy last February, which is higher than market expectations at 205,000. These numbers indicate a tight job market. The next version is expected to be around 250-240 thousand jobs. (We will be covering the next release this coming Friday in a live stream).

Unemployment Rate (March) - Friday (02:30 PM)

Unemployment in America rose to 3.6% in the latest release, but this figure remains within expectations. Unemployment previously fell to a 50-year low and we expect the next release to be around 3.5-3.6%. (We will be covering the next release this coming Friday in a live stream).

Britain

Composite PMI (March) - Wed (10:30 AM)

The index fell to 52.2 last March from an 8-month peak around 53.1 in February 2023. The numbers are positive as long as the top 50 continues.

New Zealand

RBNZ Interest Decision - Wed (04:00 AM)

The Central Bank raised the interest rate in its first meeting this year by 50 basis points to 4.75, the largest number since January 2009 and in line with market expectations. This comes in an effort to combat inflation, which is high at 7.2%. The Bank of New Zealand is expected to continue to raise interest rates by 25 basis points at their next meeting, to 5%.

Canada

Employment Change Rate (March) - Thursday (02:30 PM)

Canadian Unemployment is flat with December, January and February numbers around 5%. Unemployment is expected to rise slightly in the next release to be around 5.2 - 5.1%.

GMT +2