Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

Core CPI (Excluding Food and Energy) (MoM) (Jan) - Tuesday (03:30pm)

The US annual inflation rate has been declining for 6 months, as the December numbers were as low as 6.5%, which is the lowest reading since October 2021. As for core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices due to their large fluctuations, it is also expected to decline to 5.4% from 5.7%, which is The lowest reading since the end of 2021. As for the monthly inflation index, the index rose after adjusting the number by 0.5% in January, which is the highest in 3 months, after the revised December number also rose by 0.1%, due to increases in fuel prices. Despite the decline in inflation figures from 9.1% in the sixth month of last year to 6.5% in December, inflation is still above the US Federal Reserve target of around 2%. The next figure is expected to be around 6.2 to 6.3%.

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) - Wed (03:30pm)

Monthly Retail Sales decreased by 1.1% in December 2022. This figure is lower than the market expectation of a decline of 0.8%. The retail sales numbers are quite mixed and the next release is expected to be around 1.2% - 1.8%.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (05:30 PM)

Inventories rose by 2.423 million barrels in the week ending February 3rd which is lower than the market expectation of 2.457 million barrels. Stocks are expected to decrease in the next report to 0.321 million barrels.

Building Permits (January) - Thursday (03:30 PM)

Building permits fell by 1% in December 2022, the lowest number since May 2020, as inflation weighed heavily on mortgages and demand for new homes. We are expected to see a rise in Building Permits in the next issue around 1.374 - 1.35M.

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (03:30 PM)

The number of unemployment claims decreased by 3,000 from the previous week to 183,000 in the week ending January 28, 2023, the lowest number since April. A slight increase in complaints is expected, to 189-190 thousand.

Philadelphia Manufacturing Index (Feb) - Thursday (03:30pm)

The index rose to -8.9 in January 2023 from -13.7 in December compared to market expectations of -11. This is the fifth figure in a series of consecutive declines and it is also the seventh negative reading in the past 8 months. The February numbers are expected to be around -7 to -7.4.

PPI (MoM) (Jan) - Thursday (03:30 PM)

The Producer Price Index fell by 0.5% in December 2022. This follows a positive revision in November of around 0.2%, compared to market expectations of a 0.1% decline. This is the largest decline since April 2022. These numbers are a sign of slowing inflation in America. The next figure is expected to be around 0.4% to 0.2%.

Britain

CPI (YoY) (Jan) - Wed (09:00 AM)

Inflation fell to 10.5% in December 2022 from 10.7% by 0.2% in November, in line with expectations. This is the second consecutive month of declining inflation rates, which is the lowest in 3 months. January figures are expected to see a slight decrease of 0.2% around 10.3%.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) - Fri (09:00 AM)

Retail sales fell by 1% in December 2022 after a positive revision of a 0.5% decline in November. The next figure is expected to be in the range of -0.8% to -0.3%.

Euro-zone

ECB Governor Lagarde Speech - Wednesday (04:00 PM)

The European Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 3.0% at its last meeting in February. This hike is the highest since 2008 and interest rates are also expected to be raised at its next meeting in March 2023. Inflation rates are still above the European Central Bank's target, which is supposed to be around 2%.

Australia

Employment Change (Jan) - Thursday (02:30 AM)

Employment rates in Australia fell unexpectedly from 14,600 to 13.75 million jobs in December 2022, missing market expectations of an increase of 22,500 jobs. The latest employment figure is the first drop in employment numbers since July last year. The upcoming figure is expected to add 15-20 thousand jobs to the Australian economy.

GMT +2