Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

Existing Home Sales - Tuesday (04:00 PM)

Continuing the series of declines, existing home sales in America in January 2023 fell by 0.7% after falling by 2.2% last December. This is the twelfth consecutive decline. The next release is expected to be around 0.5-5%.

US Federal Reserve Rate Decision - Wednesday (02:00 PM)

Powell talked a lot about the possibility of a rate hike if needed depending on the economic data. The economic data came in stronger than expected more than once, which may push the US Federal Reserve to raise more. The US Federal Reserve targets 2% inflation, and the current inflation figure indicates that there are more and more measures that the US Federal Reserve may adopt to bring inflation to safety.

Building Permits - Thursday (02:00 PM)

Building permits in America increased by 13.8% to 1.524 million permits in February 2023, the highest number in 4 months. The increase in building permits directly affects inflation, as more construction means more consumption, and thus more inflationary pressures. The next release is expected to be around 1.524 million permits.

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (02:30 PM)

The US complaints rate decreased by 20K from last week around 192K in the week ending March 11th 2023 which is lower than market expectations around 205K. The next release is expected to be around 193k.

New Home Sales (Feb) - Thursday (04:00 PM)

The latest numbers show that new home sales in America stabilized at around 7.2% for the next month in a row. The next release is expected to be around -4.5%.

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) - Friday (02:30pm)

Durable Goods Orders declined significantly in the previous release around 4.5% which is the lowest number since April 2020. The next release is expected to be around 0.7% to 0.6%.

Britain

CPI (YoY) (Feb) - Wed (09:00 PM)

Britain's inflation rate fell to 10.1% (y-o-y) in January 2023 from 10.5% last December and is below market expectations of around 10.3% in a succession of declines. It is expected that the declines will continue in the next issue, as the next issue is expected to be around 9.7% to 9.9%. This figure is higher than the BoE's target of around 2%.

BoE Rate Decision (March) - Thursday (02:30 PM)

The Bank of England stated that it is possible to continue raising interest rates as long as the economy continues to show signs of continuing inflation. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points to 4% at its meeting in February. The Bank of England may continue to raise interest rates by 0 basis points to 4.5% at their next meeting.

Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) - Fri (09:00 AM)

Retail sales in January (MoM) rose 0.5% after falling for 2 consecutive months and above market expectations of 0.3%. The next release is expected to be around 0.3% - 0.2%.

Turkey

Interest Rate - Thursday (01:00 PM)

The Central Bank of Turkey cut the interest rate at its meeting in February 2023 by 50 basis points to 8.5%. This cut is the first cut since last November, and the Turkish Central Bank may continue to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, to become around 8%.

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