Economic Analysis

The most important data expected this week

United State

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) - Wed (00:05pm)

The index fell to 47.4 in January, the lowest figure since May 2020 (at the height of the coronavirus pandemic) and below market expectations of 48 points. This reading indicates a decline in corporate activity. This comes within the framework of companies' keenness to equalize demand in the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the second half of the same year. Forecasts indicate that the index may reach 48 points in the next release.

US Crude Oil Inventories - Wednesday (05:30 PM)

US inventories increased by 7.648 million barrels to 850.6 million barrels in the week ending February 17, 2023, the highest since September 23, 2022, and higher than the market expectation of 2.083 million barrels. The next issuance is expected to move 0.44 million barrels.

Unemployment Claims Rates - Thursday (03:30 PM)

Unemployment Claims fell by 3,000 to 192K in the week ending February 18 which was lower than the market expectation of 200K. The next release is expected to be around 193-195 thousand.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) - Friday (07:00 PM)

The index unexpectedly rose to 55.2 in January 2023, rebounding from a two-year low around 49.2 in December, beating market expectations of 50.4. It is expected that the index will continue to be in the top 50 in the next release.

Britain

Manufacturing PMI (Feb) - Wed (11:30 AM)

The index rose to 49.2 in February 2023 from 47 points in January, higher than the market expectation of 47.5 points as expected.. This is the highest reading in 7 months, indicating further recovery in the manufacturing sector.

Services PMI (Feb) - Fri (11:30 am)

The index rose to 53.3 in February from 48.7 in January, the highest number in 8 months and missing market expectations of 49.2 points. The activity of the British service sector is very important to the British economy.

Euro-zone

CPI (YoY) (Feb) - Thursday (12:00 PM)

Inflation figures in the euro area point to consecutive declines, despite small increases in food prices and industries that do not depend mainly on energy. Inflation remains subdued but we are still well above the ECB's preferred figure of around 2%. The next release is expected to be around 8.2%.

Unemployment - Thursday (12:00 PM)

Unemployment rates have increased by a small amount in the past months at 6.6% compared to October's numbers of 6.5%. The numbers are still moderate and there are no substantive changes. If we compare this number with the same number but last year, we will find a significant difference indicating that the labor market has improved significantly. The next release is expected to be around 6.6%.

Germany

German Unemployment Change - Wednesday (10:55 AM)

There are no fundamental changes in the German unemployment rates, as we note that within 5 months the number has not changed from 5.5%, which indicates that the labor market is in a state of relative stability, regardless of the weak demand resulting from inflation and high interest rates. The next issue is expected to rise slightly by 0.1% to 5.6%.

German CPI (YoY) (Feb) - Wed (03:00 PM)

The German annual inflation rate rose to 8.7% in January 2023 which is higher than the previous month's revised figure of 8.1%. This is due to the rise in energy prices. The next release is expected to be around 8.6%.

Canada

GDP (MoM) (Dec) - Tuesday (03:30 PM)

The Canadian economy expanded by 0.7% in the third quarter of 2022, the fifth positive figure in a series of increases in Canadian growth. Forecasts indicate that growth may decline by 0.4% in the next issue.

GMT +2