English
United Nations: Global trade is slowly recovering and prospects are murky
A United Nations report said on Wednesday that the value of global trade is expected to decline between seven and nine percent in 2020 year-on-year, despite indications of a fragile recovery led by China in the third quarter of the year.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said that no region in the world escaped a 19 percent year-on-year decline in global trade during the second quarter of the year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has disrupted economies.
The conference said in its latest report that world trade recovered somewhat in the third quarter, when it fell by about 4.5 percent compared to the same period a year ago, according to estimates.
"Trade in home office equipment and medical supplies increased in the third quarter, while the auto and energy sectors continued to decline," the conference said in its report. Textile sector growth was also strong.
Preliminary forecasts for the conference indicate a 3 percent drop in growth year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020, but the report said that uncertainties continue due to how the pandemic is developing.
He said that if the pandemic re-emerges in the coming months, this could lead to a deterioration in the decision-making situation and also to a sudden increase in trade restrictions policies.
The conference stated that China's exports recovered strongly in the third quarter after declining in the first months of the pandemic, and recorded annual growth rates of about ten percent.
The World Trade Organization updated its commodity trade forecast earlier this month on the back of improved conditions from June and forecast a decline of 9.2 percent in 2020.
